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Mounting apprehensions are present over the chance of armed conflict between Horn of Africa neighbors, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as confrontational rhetoric has intensified in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Stated?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for access to the sea coast through Eritrea has sparked a intense rhetorical conflict.

The Ethiopian leader first openly declared in the previous year that his government's access to the sea was an vital issue, remarks that Eritrea dismissed.

Diplomatic connections between the both governments have frequently been strained. After a prolonged fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) Red Sea coastline, formally separated from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, rendering it without sea access.

Five years later, a border war broke out in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Latest Remarks from Ethiopia's Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted ownership of Eritrean maritime facility of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the boundary - and hinted at the wish to take it by force.

Recently, the Prime Minister said the country's "blunder" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrean independence would be "addressed in the future".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be restored "through military action".

Eritrean Reaction to the Claims

Amid ongoing challenges from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been confined to brief comments on X from Information Minister Yemane G..

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for sea access calling it "dangerous" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a approach of retaking previous domains.

Eritrean authorities alerted on mid-September that attempts to legitimise "flagrant aggression" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its neighbouring countries and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Preparations on the Region

So far, there are few indications of significant troop deployments in the border areas between the two countries.

However, in Ethiopia, government media has shown completion events of many recruits at different defense facilities.

The leader of personnel division of the military, General Hachalu, stated recently in an conversation that the army was in a "reliable position" as "many thousands of recruits" were enlisting, which he said was "a warning to our adversaries".

Past Roots of the Dispute

For over fifty years from 1890, the territory was ruled by Italian colonisers.

Following the end of Italian rule, it was then administered by the British military before evolving into a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

However in the early 1960s the Ethiopian emperor cancelled this system and the region became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A extended armed struggle followed, ending with military reversal in 1991. Independence was then approved by the population in a vote in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the authorities in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they disagreed over the exact location of their common border, resulting in war in 1998.

Even though this finished in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the both countries continued at loggerheads.

This changed in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The both leaders agreed to a declaration that the conflict was concluded – a move that won the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The both administrations were then partners in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 internal conflict in the northern region.

Yet relations have since broken down once more.