A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."